Arkansas State got off to a slow start under their new head coach Blake Anderson , but their schedule was not exactly easy opening up against Toledo and then road games against Auburn and Utah State. The shocker was their loss against Central Arkansas, but that team has gone 6-0 since and has just 1 loss on the season at 9-1 so obviously a good team. Arkansas State started conference play after that game and have cruised to a 5-0 record. They were picked to win the Sun Belt or challenge Appalachian State, and they still control their own destiny. Call me crazy, but I think they may be able to beat Troy outright here and I think Troy is definitely getting some extra love here finding themselves in the top 25, the first Sun Belt team ever.
Troy was lucky that App State got off to such a slow start and they were able to hold the ball last and get the win to end the game a week ago. Other than that this team really has not blown out any good teams. They have 4 wins by more than 10.5 points this year and those teams are a combined 10-29 - 2-7, 6-4 (Idaho), and 2-8 Umass and 0-10 Austin Peay. Arkansas State is a completely different team I conference play. They are averaging 1.97 ypc more in conference play, and holding opponents to -1.23 less than their non-conference schedule. Their pass defense also has gotten dramatically better in conference playing holding opponents to a 51.8% completion %, and 3 TDâs to just 6 interceptions while their 3rd down and red zone defenses are excellent. Third down defense holding opponents 26.92% in conference play, and their red zone defense has allowed only 28.57% TD percentage in conference play. They had major turnover issues earlier in the season with 12 in a 3 game stretch, but have cleaned those up with just 3 total turnovers over their last 4 games where they are +5 in TO margin.
Last week I was on App State in a teaser and I mentioned all of the bad rushing offenses this Troy team has faced. App State got the running game going at 4.39 yards per carry with 2 TDâs. Iâm betting on Arkansas State to have a similar result, and their defense is just as good. Expect another close game here, and if anything Troy coming off a tough game where they beat the Sun Belt favorites. This could be a bit of a let down spot and Arkansas State, a more experienced program in terms of fighting for a conference title.
